论文标题
人才，观点，背景和运气的贡献
Contributions of Talent, Perspective, Context and Luck to Success
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了在竞争性萨姆零环境中进行的受控仿真，作为分解成功组成部分的代理。考虑到风险棋盘游戏的模拟，我们认为（a）人才是玩家使用的三种基于规则的策略之一； （b）上下文作为游戏的每次运行，都采用对手的策略，目标和运气； （c）视角作为每个玩家的目标。当第一个球员征服目标时，取得了成功。我们模拟了100,000次基于代理的模型并分析结果。仿真结果强烈表明运气，才华和背景与确定成功有关。观点 - 作为定义成功的目标的描述 - 不是。因此，我们提出了一个定量的，可重复的环境，在该环境中，我们能够显着分开概念，再现文献的先前结果并为上下文和观点添加参数。最后，我们还发现模拟提供了有关弹性和机会相关性的见解。
We propose a controlled simulation within a competitive sum-zero environment as a proxy for disaggregating components of success. Given a simulation of the Risk board game, we consider (a) Talent to be one of three rule-based strategies used by players; (b) Context as the setting of each run of the game with opponents' strategies, goals and luck; and (c) Perspective as the objective of each player. Success is attained when a first player conquers its goal. We simulate 100,000 runs of an agent-based model and analyze the results. The simulation results strongly suggest that luck, talent and context are all relevant to determine success. Perspective -- as the description of the goal that defines success -- is not. As such, we present a quantitative, reproducible environment in which we are able to significantly separate the concepts, reproducing previous results of the literature and adding arguments for context and perspective. Finally, we also find that the simulation offers insights on the relevance of resilience and opportunity.
