论文标题
COVID-19的死亡模型
The D model for deaths by COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个简单的分析模型，以描述电晕病毒（Covid-19）感染产生的死亡的快速增加。 “ D”（死亡）模型来自称为SI模型的SIR（易感性感染）模型的简化版本。它假设没有恢复。在这种情况下，动态方程可以分析求解，并扩展结果以描述取决于我们可以适合数据的三个参数的D功能。提出了来自西班牙，意大利和中国的数据结果。通过与中国的死亡数据进行比较，可以验证该模型，这些数据得到了很好的描述。这可以预测西班牙和意大利疾病的发展。
We present a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths produced by the corona virus (COVID-19) infections. The 'D' (deaths) model comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known as SI model. It assumes that there is no recovery. In that case the dynamical equations can be solved analytically and the result is extended to describe the D-function that depends on three parameters that we can fit to the data. Results for the data from Spain, Italy and China are presented. The model is validated by comparing with the data of deaths in China, which are well described. This allows to make predictions for the development of the disease in Spain and Italy.
